2020-03-22 COVID-19 AM Update

For the last few days we’ve been preparing internal reports twice a day for staff. We’ve decided to release these publicly to help you plan.

US cases are up to 26,900 from about 19,800 yesterday AM and 24,100 yesterday PM.

We can see a slight decline in the number of new cases. [Update 0939 EST] This could be from a decrease in testing in LA & NYC, we won’t know without looking into further data.

There is a slight decrease in daily deaths as well. The significance is that new cases might be down from testing differently but deaths are unlikely to change based on tests. We’ll have to dig into data to confirm.

The biggest headline of the day comes from Hong Kong’s South China Morning Post (SCMP), which is reporting that classified Chinese data shows that about a third of positive COVID-19 persons had no symptoms.

So what? First, China only counted symptomatic people in their official totals so the total number of cases could be higher that official reports. Second, it’s a strong argument for a shelter-in-place order at all levels.

Both China & South Korea have tested for COVID-19 broadly, allowing them to catch cases where people didn’t exhibit sickness. Compare this to the US where only those exhibiting symptoms are being tested.

If we are only keeping the sickest home, we’re still missing a huge chunk of the carriers and we can’t stop the virus. At least if this report is correct.

Our second headline is local, where doctors and mayors in TN are calling on Gov Bill Lee to put in place a statewide shelter-in-place order. Our $0.02: a hard and fast 2-3 week shutdown is the best way to save lives and save businesses and to save jobs. We are all for it. The slow, piecemealed shutdown is likely to result is more deaths, more shuttered businesses, and more lost jobs.

If these updates are helpful to you do us a favor and like the post wherever you saw it posted. Also, if you have a question feel free to put that up, we’ll answer it if we feel we have enough internal expertise.